Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".