A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
